Offseason ‘Buy Lows’:
I can’t speak for you guys but nothing brings me more joy than….saving money. Is it old age? Am I a cheapskate? Am I both???
Maybe I’m turning into my mom and soon I’ll be in one of those ‘Progressive’ commercials “No fussin and no cussin”
Regardless, I LOVE to get a good deal and not pay full price for ANYTHING if I don’t have to.
Oddly enough this mentality has helped me in fantasy as well and I plan on helping YOU too.
Let’s take a look at 4 players from the NFC East that I think can be bought at a discount (awesome) but can pay you in full come game day.
In this article, I will provide four different players I think will be great buy-low candidates in different scoring formats.
I’ll go with the four most popular formats: 1QB, SuperFlex, TE premium, and Multi-Flex. I know multi-flex might not be as popular as the other three, but some leagues do require managers to start 10 or more players each week and with leagues removing kickers and defenses. Starting 3 or more RBs and WRs has become the norm in some leagues.
I’d also like to add that the values for players and picks are format-specific and with most leagues being 12 teams at minimum, I used Dynasty Trade Calculators’ 12 team filter option when putting together trades and getting the value of each player and pick.
Let’s start with my favorite team:
Dallas Cowboys WR: Michael Gallup
I know what you’re thinking “Paul, Gallup was a ‘buy low’ last offseason.
Yes, he was. While the Cowboys' offense wasn’t the juggernaut we thought they’d be, Gallup was still a WR3 in 2020. (Weeks 1-16)
Not to mention he had 7 games of over 10 PPG (PPR scoring) and FIVE of those games came after Dak was lost for the season in week 5.
After what was a disappointing season for Gallup and the Cowboys’ offense overall, both Dak and Gallup will be playing for new deals in 2021 and we’ve seen how players perform during a contract year.
Now, I’m sure you’re asking “Paul, what’s it gonna cost me to get Gallup?”
I’m one step ahead of you.
According to our friends at Dynasty Trade Calculator here are a couple of different trade scenarios:
According to the guys at DTC, they have Micahel Gallup valued at:
11.2 in one QB and SuperFlex leagues.
For reference pick 1.12 is valued at 13 and pick 2.01 is valued at 10.8
I’m not saying you should trade 1.12 for Gallup, although I don’t think you’d regret it.
But, the fact that his value is higher than 2.01 leads me to believe that I’m not the only one who sees Michael Gallup as a “Buy” this season.
Here’s one trade scenario that I think I’d do 100/100 times every time:
Team 1 gets: Michael Gallup (11.2) pick 2.10 (3.8) value total = 15.0
Team 2 gets: Mecole Hardman (4.4) pick 2.01 (10.8) value total = 15.2
*These values are for 1QB leagues*
Are the player and pick values slightly higher on Team 2’s side? Sure.
The funny thing is though, I don’t think you’d need to add Hardman to 2.01, in order to get Gallup.
However, if you’re trying the team trading away Gallup, why not get another high upside WR if you can. I mean, who doesn’t want a piece of the Kansas City offense?
In the trade scenario above you get Gallup and a rookie pick.
So, come the rookie draft day you won’t feel left out.
What’s there to lose?
Oh, did I mention Gallup has been a player mentioned in trade talks for the Cowboys?
What happens if he lands in an even better situation with less competition for targets?
Remember, Gallup is just one year removed from a 1,100 yard 6 TD season.
Get him while you still can.
*Michael Gallup is one of my favorite trade targets in start 3WR and Multi-Flex leagues.*
Philadelphia Eagles WR: Jalen Reagor
If you’re a fan of the Eagles, you’re probably still wondering why Philly elected to pick Reagor over Justin Jefferson.
Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m not here to rub salt in any wounds.
While Jefferson took the world by storm in 2019, there’s still hope for Jalen Reagor.
Some people think Reagor is a glorified WR2 with no chance to be a team’s true alpha WR.
I think Reagor is in a prime position to prove “the haters” wrong.
With a new coaching regime in 2021, a new QB, DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz, and Alshon Jeffrey on their way out the door, Reagor will get his chance to prove to Philadelphia and the fans that drafting him was the right choice.
With 4.4 speed Reagor showed last season that he can be a deep ball threat in Week 1 with a reception of 55 yards.
After dealing with an injury that led to him missing 5 games and the Carson Wentz debacle coming to an end after Week 13, Reagor showed good chemistry with Jalen Hurts, averaging 5 targets per game and 35 rec yards per game.
Now I know those numbers don’t jump off the page, but for a rookie with no off-season, an early-season injury, and playing with two different QBs, those numbers inspire some hope for the future.
For fun let's see what his end of season numbers would look like based on those averages:
16 * 5 = 90 targets
16 * 35 = 560 receiving yards
Again, not eye-popping numbers. The weeks Hurts started at QB, Reagor’s yards per reception were close to 10 yards every week!
And, Philly wanted to get the ball in Reagor’s hands any way they could evidenced by the 3 carries he got on the season. One going for 11 yards and another going for 19 yards.
When you factor in draft capital (1st round pick)
Team situation ( new coaching staff, QB, and veteran players leaving)
Role on the team ( Day 1 starter)
What do you have to lose?
Let’s take a look and see what it would cost you in a trade.
According to our guys at Dynasty Trade Calculator, Reagor is valued at 10.9 in both 1QB and SuperFlex leagues.
Lower than our boy Michael Gallup, but that will work in our favor.
As of today, Reagor is valued higher than any 2nd round rookie pick and like Gallup, that’s what I’d offer someone to get the trade talks going.
Let’s look at a trade scenario:
Team 1: Jalen Reagor (10.9) and 2.08 (4.0) value total 14.9
Team 2: Christian Kirk (7.1) and 2.03 (7.6) value total 14.7
*These values are for 1QB leagues*
Now, I can’t speak for you but I’d be extremely happy to be on either side of this deal!
For conversation's sake, let’s talk about the Reagor side.
You get a receiver who is two years younger, no alpha WR to fight for targets with and you only move back 5 spots in the rookie draft….Yes, please!
While the Eagles figure out what their future is, grab Reagor before his future peak.
I think he has the potential to be someone who can become an every-week starter. Even in leagues with shallower starting lineups, I feel comfortable targeting Reagor as a potential every-week starter.
*Jalen Reagor is someone I’m targeting in all formats, in this article, I had 1QB format in mind.*
New York Giants QB: Daniel Jones
I know, I know, I know. Why the heck would I suggest YOU trade for Eli Manning 2.0?
Why, oh why would I tell you to trade for a player in a Jason Garrett ran offense?
Well, before you stop reading this article, call me out on Twitter, or better yet BLOCK me on Twitter!
Let me explain….
This suggestion is really based on people in SuperFlex leagues.
Are you still there...ok, cool.
Now, why would you want a top 24 QB?
Why would you want a QB who had the 5th most rushing yards at his position?
Why on Earth would you want a QB who is about to share the backfield with Saquon Barkley and (hopefully) add another WR or two to their offense in 2021?
I just told you!
In 2020 Daniel Jones was a QB2, top 5 in rushing for QBs, and will get Saquon Barkley and (hopefully) another WR or two this offseason.
Remember in 2019 when Daniel Jones took the league by storm?
He was a QB2 that year too.
For the record the passing TDs did go way down in 2020, going from 23 TDs in 2019 to 11 in 2020 is cause for concern.
The thing that changed….the Giants defense. In 2019 they were the 25th ranked fantasy defense and in 2020 they jumped up to 16th overall.
You know what happens when a team has a good defense... fewer shootouts!
Which position gets affected most by fewer shootouts….the QB.
“Ok, Paul but the Giants are still gonna have a good defense in 2021 dude”
I’m sure they will, but now that New York has “fixed” their defense, now it’s time to "fix" their offense, don’t you think?
Let’s take a look at what a trade for ol’ Danny Dimes will cost ya.
Shoutout again to our guys at Dynasty Trade Calculator for the player values:
SuperFlex Value: Daniel Jones (18.9!) I won’t lie, this is surprising.
Should we sell instead….hahaha, I’m joking, but man was I surprised to see that value.
Now, let’s put together a deal, again this is for my SuperFlex peeps.
Carson Wentz just got traded, so let’s see what we can get for Mr. Jalen Hurts.
Hurts should be a very popular SuperFlex target this, offseason.
Team 1: Jalen Hurts (26.9) total value = 26.9
Team 2: Daniel Jones (18.9) Sterling Shepard (2.3) and pick 2.07 (5.3) total value 26.5
*These values are SuperFlex values*
Ok, before you start yelling at me. I know it’s unlikely that anyone with Hurts on their team is making this trade ( I probably wouldn’t trade Hurts for this package)
However, rumor has it that Philly could very well take a QB with pick 6 in the upcoming draft. So, I thought putting Hurts in a deal made sense.
Another thing about this trade you probably hate is Sterling Shepard and while I’m no Shepard STAN he has shown to have the best rapport with Jones and he’s a slot WR in a Jason Garrett run offense, he has value, and I’m a BIG fan of QB/WR stacks.
If you’re not a fan of Shepard, here’s another deal I put together:
Team 1: Jalen Hurts (26.9) total value = 26.9
Team 2: Daniel Jones (18.9) Tampa Bay WR Tyler Johnson (1.5) and pick 2.06 (5.8) total value = 26.3
For me, the kicker was getting the pick.
The 2021 class is close to, if not, just as stacked as the 2020 class as far as WRs go.
We all know that 2nd round picks are worth their weight in gold come draft time and draft day.
Another thing. While I know Daniel Jones might not have the upside that Hurts has (supposedly) he does offer one thing...job security. That’s one thing Hurts doesn’t have and who wants a QB with no job security in a SuperFlex league?
Do you hate the Giants? (me too)
Is Daniel Jones a sexy name, no!
But, if anything at all he offers job security, consistency with back-to-back QB2 seasons and he’ll have you home before midnight.
Give him a shot!
*Daniel Jones is a trade target for people playing in SuperFlex leagues*
Washington Football Team TE: Logan Thomas
How, why, seriously!?? Logan Thomas is a “Buy low” after a TE1 season in 2020?
Yes, he is and please stop yelling at me.
How is Logan Thomas a ‘Buy low’ after a top 5 fantasy season you ask?
Let me ask you a couple of questions:
Who is the QB for the Football Team in 2021?
Will Logan Thomas get 110 targets again in 2021?
How many TEs who failed to have 700 yards receiving went on to be TE1s again?
Do you have the answer to any of these questions...me either.
Guess what, who freaking cares it’s February.
Let the naysayers worry about that stuff and get good players like Thomas at a discount.
I know the TE is a fickle position but one thing we know is Ron Rivera has always utilized TEs in his offense, does the name Greg Olsen ring a bell?
Greg Olsen was a TE1 for four straight seasons under Ron Rivera.
(I could only find fantasy numbers starting back to 2013 at the latest)
Let’s take a look at what Logan Thomas would cost in a trade:
Team 1: Evan Engram (15.7) total value = 15.7
Team 2: Logan Thomas (4.8) and pick 1.12 (11.4) total value = 16.2
In this scenario, I used DTC’s TE-premium feature to get the value of these players and picks.
I don’t know about you but if I could flip Evan Engram for this, it would be an instant accept on my end.
Engram is three years younger, but he’s only played 16 games once in his career out of the four seasons he’s been in the NFL.
There’s a saying in fantasy “The best ability is availability” and unfortunately Engram doesn’t offer that.
Now, I don’t know many people that would trade away a 1st round pick to acquire Engram.
I do know that in TE-premium if you’re trading away a TE you’re more than likely getting one back due to how valuable they are.
So, with that in mind, I put together a trade with all those factors and with the DTC trade values.
*Logan Thomas is someone I’m targeting in TE-premium leagues*
Well, guys there it is! Part 1 of my ‘Buy Low’ series for the 2021 offseason.
I hope you guys enjoyed it and if you didn’t, let’s talk!
You can find me on Twitter at: @Paul_Ryan15
Until next time.