Updated: Dec 2, 2019
By John Kaufman NFL Betting Analyst @ClevelandSpyder
Well now, that’s more like it. I went 4-1 last week and I gotta say, that felt VERY good. It was my first winning week since back in week 4. That’s a long time to go without a plus-money week. But I’m back up to 48% on the season which is great. However, the goal is to get above 52.4%. That is the break-even point if you’re placing bets at -110 juice. Anything above that and you’re winning money; anything less, and well, you’re not. It’s that simple. But, before we attempt to get above that marker, like we always do, let’s quickly recap last week’s action to see if my 4-1 record was lucky or good.
Week 12 Postmortem Results: 4-1 2019 Record: 19-21-1 2019 Teaser Record: 5-6 Overall win rate: 48%
NYJ +3 (-120) vs OAK Result: WIN (NYJ 34-OAK 3)
I took the Jets in this game because of how poor the Raiders are at defending the pass, and how good the Jets are at defending the run. Couple those two facts with how atrocious the Raiders have been on the road this year (1-4) and voila – the Jets getting three points at home was just silly. Winning this bet was good process, not luck. That’s what we like to see, right folks? Right.
PIT at CIN 1st Half Under 19.5 (-110) Result: WIN (Halftime Score: CIN 7-PIT 3)
The analysis for this game which I posted in this column last week was:
“Who’s going to score points in this game? Exactly.”
Exactly, indeed. I could not believe that this number was so high. I personally bet it at Under 20, but Under 19.5 was obviously also a great number. Again, this bet was good process because this total was way too high. I took advantage of a mistake made by the books. That’s what this is all about.
BAL -3 (-120) at LAR Result: WIN (BAL 45-LAR 6)
Similar to the PIT-CIN first half under, I was surprised that the Ravens were only laying three points in this contest. Yes, they were on the road, but is there a team (other than the Chargers) with less of a home field advantage than the Rams? I don’t think so. The Rams’ offensive line is really banged up and Baltimore is playing like they’re the best team in the NFL. Betting the NFL isn’t easy, of course, but man this one felt like easy money.
Six Point Teasers of The Week: + 6 points, -110 Result: WIN TB +9.5 at ATL – Result: WIN (TB 35-ATL 22) DAL +11.5 at NE – Result: WIN (NE 13-DAL 9)
The pumpkin finally burst on Atlanta’s two game run where they looked like an NFL team again. Tampa Bay went down to Georgia’s capital city and took care of the Falcons, winning the game outright. As I predicted, the Falcons really struggled to run the ball against Tampa’s #1 rush defense. And, as good as Matt Ryan is, he just can’t win games like this on his own. Granted, I did think that Atlanta had a decent chance to win this game which is why I recommended putting Tampa in this teaser. But I didn’t think that they’d win by double digits. Obviously, they didn’t win the game at all so this half of the teaser was never in doubt.
New England’s offense looks pretty awful this year when they’re not playing a bottom-six NFL team. I thought that Dallas would hang tough in this game and keep things close, and that’s exactly what happened. The Patriots giving over 10 points to average NFL teams is too good a spot to pass on. You simply must back the other teams in those situations as the 2019 Pats just don’t look like they can blow the doors off decent teams like we’re used to seeing.
+ 6 points, -110 Result: LOSS GB +9 at SF – Result: LOSS (SF 37-GB 8) SEA +6 at PHI – Result: WIN (SEA 17-PHI 9)
While I was pretty confident in the Seattle half of this teaser, the 49ers continue to stymie me. I’ll have to go back and look at this to be sure, but I’m thinking that half of my losses this year have come from getting the 49ers wrong. Either I back them when they didn’t cover, or I bet against them when they crush a good team like they did with Green Bay last week. The Packers are a good team, but they’re not great. I overestimated their ability to play with San Francisco last week. Bad process by me. But it was my only blemish on the week which felt great. Still, I was incredibly close to a perfect week, and that should have happened because I should have left Green Bay out of this teaser all together. Bad job by me.
NFL Week 13 – Best Bets
With the three Thanksgiving games out of the way, we still have 13 games of NFL action ahead of us this week. On Turkey Day, the Chicago Bears came back to defeat the Detroit Lions, 24-20, the Bills roughed up the Cowboys in Big D by a score of 26-15, and the Saints went to Atlanta and got revenge on the Falcons, 26-18. We’re all done with bye weeks so from here on out it’s a full slate of 16 games each week.
Alrighty then. It’s time for week 13 Best Bets. Let’s make some money, y’all. Here we go.
GB -6.5 (-110) at NYG – 1:00 PM
As I mentioned above, I put the Packers in one of last week’s teasers and they went to San Francisco and just got whipped. The Packers have been very good this year against poor teams. Well, the Giants are a poor team, obviously. This may seem like a lot to lay on the road, but there is just no way that the Giants can hang with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in this one. Go ahead and lay the points in this situation.
SEA -3 (-110) vs MIN – 8:15 PM on MNF
Kirk Cousins on the road versus good teams = bet the other team. Simple.
I really like Seattle in this one. The Vikings are a good team this year, as their 8-3 record shows. Their three losses came at Green Bay in week two, at Chicago in week four, and at Kansas City in week nine. Are you picking up on a theme here? The Vikings are 5-0 at home this year and 3-3 on the road, and their road wins were at the Giants in week five, at Detroit in week five, and at Dallas in week 10. Again, Minnesota just doesn’t beat good teams on the road, so I love the Seahawks in this spot.
Six Point Teaser of the Week: +6 points, -110
IND +7 vs TEN – 1:00 PM ARZ +9 vs LAR – 4:05 PM
(There is a teaser bet explanation below if you need it.)
Indianapolis opened up as 3.5-point favorites, but this has been bet to TEN -1 now. I get that the Titans have looked fantastic ever since Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota. But the Colts are a good home team (4-2) this year, and we’re getting a touchdown in this divisional game. I like the Colts to win this game outright, but if they lose, it’ll be close.
The Rams are a team to fade for sure. It seems like I am talking about their offensive line injuries every week in this article. Until they get healthy, I am very interested in considering betting on their opponent each week. This week they get the Cardinals who have shown us week in and week out that they are capable of playing with just about everyone. I am thrilled with taking nine points with the home underdog in this contest.
Alright y’all, that’s it for week 13. Good luck to us all this weekend!! Let’s cash some tickets!!
(TEASER BET EXPLANATION: In case you’re not familiar with a teaser, it’s a bet in which you get six points to manipulate the point spread and/or game total in a favorable direction. For example, in week two this year Denver was underdog against Chicago, as the Broncos were getting +2 points. In a teaser, you get to add six points to Denver’s line and increase it from +2 to +8. Or instead, if you liked Chicago in that game you could have taken the six points and teased their line from -2 to +4. Teasers are great ways to manipulate lines so that they’re more favorable to you. Last, just like a parlay, teasers must include two bets or more, and you must win all the legs in the teaser to win the bet. If you lose one leg of the teaser your whole bet is busted.)
Across the Board Sports