NFL Week 14: Best Bets

By John Kaufman NFL Betting Analyst @ClevelandSpyder

Now we’re talking. I went 4-1 in week 12 and 2-1 last week. Two winning weeks in a row officially counts as a streak. I’ll take it.

But, there’s no time to be all braggy about the smallest of streaks. Let’s quickly recap last week to see what went right and then hit on some more winners for week 14.

Week 13 Postmortem: Results: 2-1 2019 Record: 21-22-1 2019 Teaser Record: 5-7 Overall win rate: 49%

Week 13 Picks:

GB -6.5 (-110) at NYG Result: WIN (GB 31-NYG 13)

I still don’t understand how in the world Green Bay was laying less than a touchdown in this game. This is going to end up being the easiest win I’ll have the entire 2019 NFL season.

SEA -3 (-110) vs MIN Result: WIN (SEA 37-MIN 30)

I feel bad for Kirk Cousins. I really do. It’s not entirely his fault that Minnesota just can’t win outdoors on the road, nor is he solely to blame for being 0-8 on Monday Night Football now. He played well against Seattle last week. But man oh man, some things just seem to always be in the cards in the NFL, don’t they? The Chargers losing close games in new and inventive ways. The Patriots winning. Minnesota losing to above .500 teams outdoors on the road. These things just keep happening. There was nothing to overthink in this one. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks at home laying a field goal against a team that seems incapable of winning games like this. Easy-peasy.

Six Point Teaser of The Week: + 6 points, -110 Result: LOSS IND +7 vs TEN – Result: LOSS (TEN 31-IND 17) ARZ +9 vs LAR – Result: LOSS (LAR 34-ARZ 7)

Arizona just got shellacked vs the Rams, so this teaser was nowhere close to hitting. And thank goodness, too. Because as I talked about on this week’s Across the Board Sports Best Bets podcast, if this teaser had come down to just hitting the Colts side of this one, I’d have lost my mind. I damn near lost it anyways watching Indianapolis repeatedly and inexplicably trotting out 105-year old Adam Vinatieri to miss field goal after field goal in this game. Again. He has now missed 14 kicks this year – eight field goals and six extra points. The fact that he is still on an NFL roster is honestly is the biggest mystery of the 2019 NFL season. I am beyond baffled by this. Regardless, this teaser was toast pretty early on. I’ve got to get better with these, that’s for sure.

It's all about process over results. And the Benjamins. It's about them, too.

NFL Week 14 – Best Bets

Alright then, we’ve got 15 games of NFL action ahead of us this week. This past Thursday night, the Dallas Cowboys came up short – again – in Chicago, losing to the Bears by a score of 31-24. The game wasn’t that close though, as Chicago jumped out to a huge lead and the Cowboys simply scored a bunch in garbage time to make it appear that they were in the game. They weren’t. Dallas is a bad football team. We need to take advantage of this moving forward.

Okay, it’s time for week 14 Best Bets. Let’s make some money, y’all. Here we go.

NE -3 (-110) vs KC – 4:25 PM

Bill Belichick at home, coming off a loss, in a huge game that they need to win in order to stay on track for a playoff bye. What’s not to love? This is pretty simple. I’m just backing the team with the better coach. That’s it.

TEN -3 (-105) at OAK – 4:25 PM

Oakland has no defense whatsoever. They struggle to rush the pass, and they’re not particularly good at stopping the run either. They’re going to be behind in this game early and then Derek Carr will have to play catchup. Except that he’s not very good at that, so I’m absolutely fine laying a short number with the road team here.

TEN at OAK, 1st HALF OVER 23.5 (-110) – 4:25 PM

If Adam Vinatieri doesn’t miss all the field goals against the Titans last week, they Colts would have put up 29 in that game. And that was without T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron, Parris Campbell, etc. That’s important. Tennessee’s defense isn’t fantastic, and while I believe that they will win this game, I don’t think that either team will have any issues putting up points. We need three touchdowns and a field goal to win this first half bet. We’ll get there.

Six Point Teaser of the Week: +6 points, -130

SF +8 at NO – 1:00 PM JAX +9 vs LAC – 4:05 PM

(There is a teaser bet explanation below if you need it.)

I have gone back and forth with this 49ers-Saints game. If either team wins I will not be the least bit surprised. On this week’s podcast I talked about liking the Saints -2.5. But the more I think about it, the more I believe that taking eight points with the Niners is just the smarter bet to make. This game should be incredible for sure, and I cannot wait to watch it. There’s just no way that it’s not a close game, so grabbing eight with SF is the smart play.

Minshew Mania is back! I love it. The Chargers are a mess, and if Philip Rivers gets benched in this one I won’t be shocked at all. I love, love, love getting nine with the home squad in this contest.

Alright y’all, that’s it for week 14. Good luck to us all this weekend!! Let’s cash some tickets!!

(TEASER BET EXPLANATION: In case you’re not familiar with a teaser, it’s a bet in which you get six points to manipulate the point spread and/or game total in a favorable direction. For example, in week two this year Denver was underdog against Chicago, as the Broncos were getting +2 points. In a teaser, you get to add six points to Denver’s line and increase it from +2 to +8. Or instead, if you liked Chicago in that game you could have taken the six points and teased their line from -2 to +4. Teasers are great ways to manipulate lines so that they’re more favorable to you. Last, just like a parlay, teasers must include two bets or more, and you must win all the legs in the teaser to win the bet. If you lose one leg of the teaser your whole bet is busted.)

John Kaufman

Across the Board Sports

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