1220

TB12 in TB, a Dynasty Buy!

Updated: Apr 20

By Jon McNabb

Fantasy Football Analyst

@JonMcNabb

Photo from Clutchpoints.com


Alright folks let me tell you about one of my favorite bargain quarterbacks in dynasty for 2020. With a current ADP of 188 (ADP from @SleeperHQ app as of Apr. 17th, 2020), or roughly QB26 in Superflex leagues. The man for the job, Tom Brady. This offseason, after 20 years with the New England Patriot’s and six Super Bowl victories, Brady has entered free agency for the first time. There were plenty of rumors where he might end up, but ultimately the Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought him aboard for two years with a $50 million fully guaranteed contract, with another $9 million in incentives. That is a deserving contract for one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks of all time and future Hall of Fame candidate. But let us look at how Brady’s real-life success, mixed with Bruce Arian's offense and how it could offer some solid fantasy production. At this stage in Brady’s career, he has amassed some pretty nice stats:


· 9,988 Pass Attempts

· 6,377 Pass Completions

· 74,571 Passing Yards

· 541 Passing TDs

· 179 INTs

· 219 W - 64 L


That’s translated into some very solid yearly averages:


· 499.4 Pass Attempts per season

· 318.85 Pass Completions per season

· 3,728.6 Pass Yards per season

· 27.1 Pass TDs per season

· 8.95 INTs per season


We already knew Tom Brady was one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. But why don’t we look at how his real-life success has translated into fantasy relevancy. Brady will be going into his 21st season with Tampa Bay, and as a baseline we’ll look at the last five years. From 2015-2019 (settings: 25yd=1 point, 6pts/TD, -2 pts/INT):


· 1,724.12 total fantasy points

· 344.82 fantasy points per season

· 22.69 fantasy points per game


Over those five years, Brady has ranked as the QB12, QB14, QB3, QB15 and QB2, good for an average of QB9. As you will notice, three out of the past five years Brady has finished as a QB2, and twice as a QB1. Those are safe numbers but that was with the Patriots. The question is, can Tom Brady have similar success in Bruce Arians' offense in Tampa Bay? I took a dive into Arians' head coaching trends and here is what I found from 2013-2019 (not including 2018 since he was out of the NFL that year):


· 3,578 Pass Attempts

· 25,047 Pass Yards

· 162 Pass TDs

· 2,489 Rush Attempts

· 9,404 Rush Yards

· 75 Rush TDs

You probably noticed, like I have, that Bruce Arians has had good success throwing the ball and the stats would indicate it’s a throw-heavy offense. Let’s see what the yearly averages come to under Arians' offense:


· 596.3 Pass Attempts per season

· 4,175.5 Pass Yards per season

· 27 Pass TDs per season

· 414.8 Rush Attempts per season

· 1,567.3 Rush Yards per season

· 12. 5 Rush TDs per season


Comparing Tom Brady’s yearly averages from 2015-2019 to Bruce Arians' head coaching yearly averages from 2013-2019, you’ll first notice that, on average, Brady is attempting 96.9 less passes and 446.9 yards less a season than Arians' quarterbacks typically achieve. However, Brady could meet those expectations. In Brady’s career he has attempted 575 passes or more in nine different seasons ('02, '07, '11, '12, '13, '14, '15, '17 and '19), including in three of the past five seasons. Additionally, Brady has had six seasons of 600 or more pass attempts per season ('02, '11, '12, '13, '15 and '19). Over the last five years, Brady has had these averages:


· 564 Pass Attempts per season

· 365.2 Pass Completions per season

· 4,262.6 Pass Yards per season

· 11.67 Pass Yards per Completion

· 29.8 Pass TDs per season

· 7.2 INTs per season


The last five years averages, Brady could meet or exceed Arians' averages. I also think it’s important to mention that Brady played 76 games in this five-year window, only missing four games to a suspension and only having one season ended by injury (2008).

What does that translate to in fantasy points? (Settings: 25 yards= 1 point, 6pts/TD and -2 pts/INT). Here are my 2020 projections for Tom Brady’s first season with Tampa Bay and with Bruce Arians as head coach:


· 593.6 Pass Attempts

· 384.65 Pass Completions

· 4,488.87 Pass Yards

· 31.36 Pass TDs

· 7.52 INTs

352.67 fantasy points per season

OR


22.04 fantasy points per game


There are a few things I hope you were able to take from this article. First, that a mentality of win now, build tomorrow is at the forefront of your draft stragedy. Second, that you are able to see the value of consistent veterans as the foundation of your dynasty league. And last, just have fun! So, if Tom Brady meets or beats these projections in 2020, he could be a week-to-week starter and very likely help you win that championship. That is the goal right?

Good Luck!

Jon McNabb

Across the Board Sports

#AskATB

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