You Draft at ADP.... Hell No, NOT Me!

By Paul Ryan

Fantasy Football Analyst


Ah, the 90’s. What a wonderful decade. Saturday morning cartoons, blue jean shorts,

TGIF, chili bowl haircuts…

These are the things that come to mind when I think about the 90’s. The music of the 90’s still affects us today… Nirvana, Metallica, Biggie & Tupac (RIP).

Such a great decade with some legendary artists. One of my favorites: Naughty By Nature.

I’m sure you’ve gone out to a local bar or club and heard their song, "O.P.P."

Funny enough, I didn’t know what OPP meant until a couple years ago and let’s just say the definition is… NSFW.

Similar to O.P.P., I didn’t know until a few years ago what ADP meant: Average Draft Position.

I’m sure most fantasy players are familiar with this term. My question to you is this:

Do you draft your fantasy teams based on player’s ADP?

Whether you do or not, whether you’re drafting in dynasty or redraft leagues, I’m here to show you that before you hit that draft button, maybe give it a second thought. Before making that final decision, think twice.

According to Sleeper 2019 ADP in 12 team leagues, the first round of drafts went something like this…

Saquon Barkley - RB1

Christian McCaffrey - RB2

Alvin Kamara - RB3

Ezekiel Elliot - RB4

DeAndre Hopkins - WR1

Odell Beckham, Jr. - WR2

Davante Adams - WR3

JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR4

Michael Thomas - WR5

David Johnson - RB5

Joe Mixon - RB6

Nick Chubb - RB7

A lot of familiar faces here for sure, seven of which were RBs, and five of which were WRs. This seems about right for the first round of a fantasy draft. Let’s see where these players finished at the end of the year.

*Saquon Barkley - RB12

Christian McCaffrey - RB1

*Alvin Kamara - RB11

Ezekiel Elliot - RB5

DeAndre Hopkins - WR3

Odell Beckham, Jr. - WR29

*Davante Adams - WR26

*JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR62

Michael Thomas - WR1

*David Johnson - RB33

Joe Mixon - RB17

Nick Chubb - RB8

*indicates player missed games due to injury

Of the top 12 players drafted in the first round in 2019, four of them finished outside of the top 24 in their positions.

In any given year there are typically three or more QBs that finish in the top 12 in scoring among all players. In 2019, six of the top 12 scorers were QBs. But for this article I am removing them so that we can focus solely on the skill positions. These were your top 12 non-QB scorers in 2019.

1. Christian McCaffrey - RB1

2. Michael Thomas - WR1

3. Aaron Jones - RB2 (ADP 3.06)

4. Dalvin Cook - RB3 (ADP 2.06)

5. Austin Ekeler - RB4 (ADP 9.04)

6. Ezekiel Elliot - RB5

7. Chris Godwin - WR2 (ADP 4.06)

8. DeAndre Hopkins - WR3

9. Leonard Fournette - RB6 (ADP 3.03)

10. Julio Jones - WR4 (ADP 2.02)

11. Derrick Henry - RB7 (ADP 4.11)

12. Julian Edelman - WR5 (ADP 8.07)

No surprise here: seven of the top 12 scorers in 2019 were RBs and five were WRs. You will notice, though, that only four players on this list were drafted in the first round. Two weren’t drafted until the eighth and ninth rounds! Wow, I know injuries can’t be predicted and there are many factors when it comes to fantasy, but regardless, you should ask yourself: “Am I drafting the name, or the production?”

Julio Jones is a great example. For six straight seasons Julio Jones has finished as a top 10 WR, but in 2019 he was being drafted after Deandre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Jr., Davante Adams, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. None of these have had as consistent production as Julio has.

Picture from Getty Images

Davante Adams and Odell Beckham, Jr. have finished as top-12 WRs in three of the last six seasons. DeAndre Hopkins has only been a top-12 WR in two of the last six seasons.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a top-12 WR ONCE in the three seasons he has been in the NFL.

Sure, Julio is 31 years old and not getting any younger, but should we draft players based on age or production? In dynasty leagues, building your team with a young core is vital to building - not just a contender, but true to the name - a dynasty. Do we value youth more than production though?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you should draft Tom Brady over Kyler Murray. Should you pass on Travis Kelce for guys like Dallas Goedert and Hayden Hurst?

I know I wouldn’t! When it comes down to it, who are you drafting and why? Is it the name, the age, or is it the production?

My final question is this:

Do you draft at ADP?

Hell no, not me!!

Paul Ryan

Across the Board Sports


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